Temperature variability, air pollution, and birth outcomes in a changing climate: epidemiological innovation contrasting populations in Massachusetts USA and Southern Israel Medicine - Child and Human Health, Human Development

 

Adapting to climate change will require a better understanding of the health consequences of extreme air temperatures (Ta), heat stress (HS), and temperature variability, including their associations with adverse birth outcomes. Preterm birth and poor fetal growth are major causes of infant mortality with implications for lifelong health. However, current epidemiological studies on the health effects of increased Ta have many limitations. Foremost among these is the lack of sufficiently detailed climate data – in space and time – for estimating exposure to HS. We propose epidemiologic analyses using our satellite-based hybrid models with a complete time series of exposure to delineate how and when temperature and air pollution most impact birth outcomes. These methods need to be applied to large population-based datasets to understand how temperature and temperature variability impact early human development. To do this we will conduct epidemiologic analyses in registries, with hundreds of thousands of births, in

Massachusetts USA and Southern Israel and contrast the associations in these populations. This project will advance our exposure models with innovative spatio-temporally resolved temperature estimates we can link in both populations. Using these exposures, we will apply new distributed lag modeling of birth outcomes to delineate windows of susceptibility to Ta and explore the joint effects of extreme temperatures and air pollution. The proposed study will advance environmental epidemiological analyses of children’s health and susceptibility in a changing climate.